1. It’s snowing, heavily outside right now.
2. Livan Hernandez is a poor pitcher
3. I have to root against the Local 9 for at least 5 innings tonight, to myself of course

I had my fantasy baseball drafts on Friday and they ended up pretty well. I tried to pick mostly NL guys, so I don’t have to root against the Twins too much.

I suppose I should put my picks down in writing on the interwebs so I can visit them later and realize how horribly wrong I was

American League

• AL Central- Detroit
• AL East- Boston
• AL West- Seattle
• Wild Card- Cleveland
• CY Young- Felix Hernandez
• ROY- Adam Jones
• MVP- ARod

National League

• NL Central- Chicago
• NL East- New York
• NL West- Arizona
• Wild Card- Philadelphia
• CY Young- Johan Santana
• ROY- Justin Upton
• MVP- Ryan Howard

Playoffs

• ALDS- Detroit over Seattle; Boston over Cleveland
• NLDS- Chicago over Arizona; New York over Philadelphia
• ALCS- Detroit over Boston
• NLCS Chicago over New York
• WS- Chicago over Detroit

Age BA OBP SLG AB H R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K

26 .268 .332 .436 447 120 53 28 1 15 67 43 85-Kubel

39 .269 .366 .438 320 86 60 12 0 14 65 45 46-Gary Sheffield

29 .269 .352 .427 527 142 84 32 3 15 75 62 113-Cuddy

32 .278 .332 .481 528 147 84 33 1 24 94 39 89-Torii Hunter

31 .236 .286 .402 433 102 57 24 0 16 62 30 118-Craig Monroe

Kubel isn’t the best hitter in the bigs, but he is a hitter that projects well if given the at bats. Some things of note:

Kubel’s projects to be a better slugger than Cuddy this year and is on par with Sheffield. He projects to have as many HR’s as Cuddy and Sheffield with 80 fewer AB’s. One could assume that given more AB’s Jason Kubel would pick up a few more runs and a few more doubles thus raising his SLG%. In all he would project to be a better power hitter than Json Kubel.

Interesting note that ZIPS projects Monroe to get nearly half the ABs hit as many HRs and generally be a worse hitter otherwise. (31 HR’s out of the DH spot would be nice though)

Couldn’t the Twins have spent this money more wisely?

Actually, no.

While $47 million is a lot of money for a team with a target payroll of about $70 million, the Twins are …

• Under payroll this season, and are wiser investing that money in Nathan than banking it or hoping they will ever sign someone of Nathan’s caliber in free agency.

• Getting an elite closer for a little more annually than the Reds are paying Francisco Cordero and less than the Yankees are paying Mariano Rivera on his retirement tour.

• Locking up one of the players they consider vital to their future and their clubhouse through the opening of the new stadium.

• Signing a player who they believe still will be effective at the end of the contract, whereas Hunter and Santana wanted deals that their new teams might regret in three or four years.

• Don’t have enough elite players to allow any more to leave.

Why yes the Twins could have spent the money more wisely. They could have taken that money and invested in Johan Santana before last winter. While Hunter’s productivity is declining, Santana is not, by any stretch of the imagination. He might blow out his arm, but you can’t predict that and you would be an idiot if you did (I’m not pointing any elbows Souhan).

The Twins have been saying for months that Nathan was a priority because they have no other closers in the organization, and they believe Nathan’s dominance and durability have enabled them to field one of baseball’s best bullpens since he arrived in 2004. All true.

They have been saying that Nathan is a priority because most of their fans are pissed that the team let Santana, Hunter, and Silva go for cents on the dollar. Not because they lack a closer in the system. As a matter of fact this team has been pretty good at creating closers. See: Nathan, Guardado, Aguilera, etc. So don’t tell me, Jimmie Souhan, that we don’t have any closers in our system. Who the hell do we have closing in AAA, AA, High A, Low A, etc? While the Twins bullpen has been good, it hasn’t been unhittable, losing Crain and Reyes last year, along with Neshek’s sudden hittability  made the bullpen only slightly above average. Barring any unforeseen circumstances the bullpen should return to 2006 form which will put it near the top of the league again.

Finally the coup de’ gras:

This contract represents, at least, a good investment. And if Nathan is closing for a contender in the new ballpark in 2010, it should be viewed as a shrewd move, and the latest proof that the Pohlads intend to win.

If, seriously, really J. Souhan, if. The Pohlads have at best a vested interest in winning. Really there job is done, they have their stadium taxpayer funded and the value of the franchise will and already has gone up. Although I guess you can’t expect much from Hacky McSouhan.

Of course the one glaring omission is the lack of Jason Kubel, who the writer of this blog should get every opportunity to have at least 500 AB’s this summer. Anyways, that’s not really the point because Souhan to a certain extent agrees. What really busts my chops (yep i’m 65 years old) is Souhan’s ridiculous breakdown of the order. For example:

If the Twins were looking for comfort and making all of their judgments based on spring training performances, Span would be a logical choice.

But teams should never make decisions based on spring training performances, which can fool you as surely as infomercials. Let’s consider the big picture: Gomez was the centerpiece of the Santana trade. Gomez is considered a better long-term prospect than Span. Gomez has better tools. Gomez is more exciting.

Actually, the Twins should be making their judgments based on Spring Training, especially at the CF position. None of the candidates have shown anything of relevance at the major league level yet. Gomez is more exciting and is winning this job because of his desire to improve his game by listening to coaches. Not to mention he is faster than Speedy Gonzalez and has stolen nine bases in less than a month of playing every other day (not that i’m a fan of the SB, see later posts). But when you still 2nd and the catcher doesn’t even make a throw, then you have something special. I’m actually in favor of starting with Span and giving him every opportunity to fail and bringing Gomez up in the 2nd half. I feel this is not a contention year for us and I would hate to use up an option and year of eligibility on Gomez when Span or Pridie for that matter would be serviceable for at least half of a year.

But then it gets crazy Souhan and I agree on something. To whit:

No. 2: I’d prefer to see Mauer as the leadoff hitter. Even in a down year, Mauer had the Twins’ best on-base percentage last season. If I were writing the lineup, I’d want my best on-base percentage hitter leading off, to try to build big innings.

Yes, I don’t get why more major league managers wouldn’t at least try this. Tony LaRussa isn’t going anywhere, throw us sabers a bone and bat your best OBP guy all year long. If it fails miserably maybe we’ll just shut up (probably not though).

“I like those guys in that order — Mauer, Cuddy, Morneau, Delmon,” Gardenhire said. “They all look comfortable.”

Gardy is a big fan of that L-R-L-R thing when it comes to hitting, and at this point it’s hard to argue with him. Young and Cuddyer are interchangeable (until Young proves to be less of a hack with the bat of course, which should come considering he is only 21). Morneau and Cuddyer should bounce back from bad years last year.

No. 6: Kubel and Monroe give the Twins a chance to dramatically increase the production from the DH spot, a black hole last year. Kubel should get most of the at-bats. He hit .303 after the All-Star break last year, should punish lefties, and could be a big part of the future if he can revive his career.

The whole point of this blog is the integrating the traditional with the future. Kubel should be poised for a breakout year, if Gardy quits jerking him around. I’m not opposed to Monroe on the bench as a big bat late in the game and as a relatively decent (albeit ridiculously expensive) back up OF. I agree with many that Monroe should only DH against the really tough lefties and that Kubel should be given every chance to get 500-550 AB’s this year. I liken his situation to that of Cuddyer. Once Cuddy was comfortable in RF and settled down he had a career year. Give Kubel a chance.

Harris is supposedly competing for the second base job with Nick Punto. Realistically, the Twins acquired Harris to improve their woeful run production.

This lineup makes sense with Harris’ bat instead of Punto’s, and the four-man bench better if it includes Punto, who can play three infield positions brilliantly and can handle three outfield positions if necessary.

Please god no Nickie Punto AB’s. While I don’t necessarily agree with Harris’ politics I do agree with his bat, which much like his glove this spring has been mediocre. However he is a marked improvement over Punto, who in one man’s opinion shouldn’t see more than 7 AB’s a week.

The lineup should be okay and is certainly capable of putting some runs on the board. The rotation is suspect and another topic!